India is expected to experience an extreme summer this year, with more heatwave days between March and May in most parts of the country, according to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD).
The forecast, issued on February 28, 2025, predicts above-normal temperatures for most regions, except Northeast India, extreme north India, and some parts of southern Peninsular India.
With rising temperatures, electricity consumption is set to increase significantly as households and businesses ramp up their use of air-conditioners and coolers.
In response, the Indian government has been preparing to meet the anticipated peak demand, ensuring an adequate supply of power throughout the summer months.
“We are expecting a peak demand of 270 Gigawatts this summer. All the preparations are in place to meet that demand,” said Ghanshyam Prasad, chairman of the Central Electricity Authority (CEA).
The government is expected to utilize its full capacity to ensure uninterrupted power supply, with a special focus on managing shortages in April, May, June, and September-October, which are projected to be the most crucial months for electricity demand.
“Demand for power, both energy and peak power, in India has been growing at an unprecedented level of 8.5% in recent years for FY 21-24. Peak demand touched 250GW on May 30, 2024. However, during 10MFY25, demand was subdued with energy/peak growing a meagre 3.6% YoY/ 2.3% YoY,” JM Financial said recently.
There is a high probability of higher power demand from irrigation during the ensuing wheat and, then, paddy sowing seasons. As per our analysis of FY23-25, around 10% of power demand in India is sensitive to rainfall, the brokerage said.
“We estimate energy/peak power demand to grow to 1,828BU/ 270GW at 7.5%/8.0% during FY26, which is also in alignment with estimates,” it said.
With demand for power set to rise, stocks from the power sector may benefit in the coming months.
Based on technical charts, five power stocks show potential for significant gains, with upside potential of up to 27%.
NTPC: Poised for recovery
Current Price: Rs 327
Upside Potential: 14.7%
Support Levels: Rs 306; Rs 300
Resistance Levels: Rs 345; Rs 350
NTPC shares have been consolidating around the 100-week moving average (WMA) at Rs 306 for the past nine trading weeks.
Key momentum indicators such as the RSI and Stochastic Slow suggest a positive outlook.
The stock may attempt to rally towards Rs 375, with interim resistance at Rs 345 and Rs 350.
On the downside, crucial support lies at Rs 306 and Rs 300.
Tata Power: Strong base formation
Current Price: Rs 353
Upside Potential: 22.4%
Support Levels: Rs 347; Rs 330
Resistance Levels: Rs 361; Rs 368; Rs 391; Rs 415
Tata Power has been stabilizing around its 100-WMA at Rs 347, with strong support at Rs 330.
If the stock sustains above this level, it may see a rally toward Rs 432. Interim resistance is expected at Rs 361, Rs 368, Rs 391, and Rs 415.
NHPC: Holding key support
Current Price: Rs 77
Upside Potential: 21.4%
Support Levels: Rs 74.40; Rs 71
Resistance Levels: Rs 79.60; Rs 81; Rs 86.30; Rs 91
NHPC has repeatedly found support around Rs 71 over the past month.
The stock has also managed to hold above its 100-WMA at Rs 74.40, indicating a cautiously optimistic outlook.
A breakout above Rs 79.60 could trigger a rally toward Rs 93.50, with interim resistance at Rs 81, Rs 86.30, and Rs 91.
CESC: Breakout signals strength
Current Price: Rs 141
Upside Potential: 20.6%
Support Levels: Rs 133; Rs 126
Resistance Levels: Rs 146; Rs 160
CESC recently broke above a key resistance level, confirming a bullish breakout.
The stock has strong support at Rs 133 and Rs 126, with the potential to rally up to Rs 170.
Interim resistance levels to watch are Rs 146 and Rs 160.
JSW Energy: Eyes fresh highs
Current Price: Rs 497
Upside Potential: 27.2%
Support Levels: Rs 471; Rs 435
Resistance Levels: Rs 510; Rs 565; Rs 595
JSW Energy has been holding above its short-term moving average (20-DMA) for the past four sessions, and momentum indicators suggest a favorable trend.
However, the stock must cross Rs 510 to trigger fresh upward momentum.
If successful, it may climb to Rs 632, with interim resistance at Rs 565 and Rs 595. Support exists at Rs 471 and Rs 435.
The post From NTPC to Tata Power: 5 power stocks to watch as India braces for extreme summer appeared first on Invezz
