The Biden administration is currently fast-tracking $9 billion in military aid to Ukraine.
The outgoing president aims to shore up Kyiv’s defences before a leadership change that could drastically shift US support.
With President-elect Donald Trump and a Republican-majority Congress set to take office in January, there are growing concerns about the future of US involvement in Ukraine.
The remaining funding comes from a $61 billion package approved in April and includes critical weapons and equipment to help Ukraine resist Russian advances.
However, logistical constraints mean much of this,military aid may arrive only after Trump’s inauguration, allowing the new administration the option to halt deliveries mid-shipment.
Why is the Biden administration rushing?
The Biden administration’s urgency highlights both the importance of the Ukraine aid and the potential for a policy reversal under Trump.
Biden has instructed the Pentagon to pull from US stockpiles to send supplies that will support Ukraine immediately.
This includes weapons like Javelin anti-tank missiles from Lockheed Martin and RTX, as well as 155mm artillery from General Dynamics Corp.
These are critical as Ukraine faces shortages of munitions and equipment while trying to regain eastern territories.
Despite Biden’s push, production limitations could slow delivery.
According to former Department of Défense official Mark Cancian:
We have been sending whatever industry can produce each month, but…you can only send these things as they are produced.
Even with Biden’s efforts, the process remains limited by manufacturing speeds and available inventory.
Will Trump pull the plug?
Trump has openly criticized Biden’s approach, arguing that European countries should contribute more.
JD Vance, Trump’s vice president-elect, has similarly called for reduced US spending on Ukraine, suggesting those funds should go toward domestic priorities instead.
Analysts believe Trump might cut aid quickly to make good on campaign promises to prioritize US interests.
Republican sentiment in Congress, however, is mixed. While some lawmakers, like Senator Roger Wicker, continue to support Ukraine and urge Biden to expedite shipments, others question further spending.
Trump has also suggested he would use aid as leverage to push Ukraine toward a settlement, raising concerns that Kyiv might be pressured to concede territory to Russia, a notion Ukraine has firmly rejected.
Is Europe going to step up?
If Trump curtails US support, European leaders may need to boost their own military and financial contributions to Ukraine.
While Europe has collectively matched US aid so far, some leaders acknowledge that more could be done.
However, whether they will scale up assistance depends on internal politics and economic pressures.
In response to Trump’s criticisms, European allies recently unlocked about $48 billion from frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s reconstruction and arms purchases.
The Biden administration has pledged roughly $20 billion in loans from this pool.
Still, without continued US support, this European funding might not suffice, and Kyiv’s military capacity could be affected.
Can the aid arrive on time?
While Biden is pushing to accelerate aid shipments, the Pentagon also faces logistical hurdles.
The remaining $9 billion is split between $4.3 billion for transfers from stockpiles and $2.8 billion earmarked for new equipment purchases.
The Pentagon can only ship what’s immediately available, meaning officials must draw on stockpiles carefully to avoid affecting US readiness.
Production delays also add to the challenge. Manufacturing weapons like Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS) for the HIMARS systems can take months.
The success of Biden’s final aid push depends on whether the administration can bridge these logistical challenges before January.
What about the rest of the Republican party?
The future of US aid to Ukraine hinges on Trump’s stance and the composition of Congress.
Republicans maintained control of the House after the midterms, while Democrats lost seats, making bipartisan support for Ukraine less certain.
Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell has avoided commenting on Ukraine aid, reflecting broader GOP hesitancy.
Yet, some Republicans are still committed to supporting Ukraine.
Kurt Volker, Trump’s former special envoy for Ukraine, recently suggested switching from outright grants to a lend-lease model, which would allow Ukraine to borrow funds to purchase US weapons.
This compromise might attract bipartisan support, allowing Ukraine to sustain its military without further taxpayer strain.
Will Trump’s stance end US involvement?
Despite Trump’s skepticism toward US foreign commitments, it’s unclear how quickly he would alter American involvement in Ukraine.
Some of his advisors advocate continued support, while others lean toward cutting it off entirely.
Trump’s stance of rapidly negotiating peace also raises questions, as he has suggested he could broker a deal with Russia by using aid as leverage on both Kyiv and Moscow.
In a 2023 interview, Trump claimed he could secure an agreement with Russia within 24 hours.
Analysts remain doubtful, with many believing that Ukraine would resist any settlement that involves territorial concessions to Russia.
What’s next for Ukraine?
As Ukraine faces an uncertain future with the possibility of reduced US aid and limited European resources, Kyiv may need to shift its strategy.
With a new US administration potentially focused on domestic priorities, Ukraine could seek additional European backing, mobilize more internal resources, or explore diplomatic options.
For now, Biden’s final aid package gives Ukraine a chance to bolster its defenses.
However, with Trump set to take office, Kyiv’s long-term security remains deeply uncertain, leaving its future heavily dependent on the policy decisions of the incoming US administration.
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